Reading list


Our early thinking behind SHELF was based on the findings of a research project on best practice in elicitation, funded by the NHS’s Research Methodology Programme. The project was a collaboration between statisticians and psychologists, and the main output was this book:

O' Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. E., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E. and Rakow, T. (2006) Uncertain judgements: Eliciting expert probabilities. Chichester: Wiley.

We have contributed to a more recent review/guidance document, which describes SHELF as well as Cooke’s classical method and the Delphi method:

European Food Safety Authority (2014) Guidance on expert knowledge elicitation in food and feed safety risk assessment. EFSA Journal 2014, 12(6): 3734, 278 pp.
DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2014.3734

John Paul Gosling has written about SHELF in an edited volume on elicitation methods:

Gosling, J. P. (2018) SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework. In Dias, L., Morton, A., Quigley, J. (eds.) Elicitation. International series in operations research and management science, vol. 261. Springer, Cham.


These papers give examples of using SHELF:

This paper discusses the use of expert elicitation with SHELF at GlaxoSmithKline:

Dallow, N., Best, N., Montague, T. H. (2018) Better decision making in drug development through adoption of formal prior elicitation. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 17, 301–316.

This paper presents a case study in which SHELF is compared with Cooke’s classical method:

Williams, C. J., Wilson, K. J. and Wilson, N. (2021) A comparison of prior elicitation aggregation using the classical method and SHELF. J. R. Stat. Soc. Series A, 184, 920-940.