Survival extrapolation
This page is under construction. We are developing materials to support the use of expert elicitation for long-term survival outcomes, motivated by applications in health technology assessment. A Technical Support Document (TSD) for the NICE Decision Support Unit and is due for publication shortly. Please check this page in March 2025 for updates.
Software
The SHELF R package includes an app and supporting functions for survival extrapolation.
# Install the SHELF R package first
install.packages("SHELF")
# To run the main app
SHELF::elicitSurvivalExtrapolation()
The app will be hosted online shortly.
SHELF templates
Please refer to the main SHELF download for the full set of templates and advice, including powerpoint slides to walk the experts through the process of making probability judgements. A full documentation of an elicitation session would use the SHELF 1 and SHELF 3 Survival Extrapolation templates.
Training slides
Training exercise
The above pdf is a handout, intended for use a training exercise in survival extrapolation. It is based on a study reported in Koshiaris, C., Aveyard, P., Oke, J. et al. Smoking cessation and survival in lung, upper aero-digestive tract and bladder cancer: cohort study. Br J Cancer 117, 1224–1232 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2017.179.
Synthetic data
This .csv file contains synthetic data, based on Koshairis et al. (2017) cited above above. There is no real patient data in this file. Synthetic data has been generated by digitising the survival curve in Figure 2a in this paper, using the WebPlotDigitizer tool (A. Rohatgi, WebPlotDigitizer. [Online]. Available: https://automeris.io).
The data can be used with the R shiny app SHELF::elicitSurvivalExtrapolation(), and are also the basis for the training exercise.